Lithuanian intelligence warns of possible provocations during Russian-Belarusian drills planned to be held in September.
National security threats assessment published yearly by the State Security Department of the Republic of Lithuania and Second Investigation Department under the Ministry of National Defence stated the following: «Concerning Russian considerable leverage in Belarus, provocations or premeditated incidents on the borders with Lithuania and Poland are quite possible during military trainings „Zapad (West) 2017“ that are to be conducted on the border».
It is also noted in the document that «Russia`s aggressive foreign policy», concentration of its military facilities near the Lithuania`s border and active intelligence operations still remain the biggest threats for Lithuania.
Recently Belarus Ministry of Defence announced that 13,000 military personnel will take part in «Zapad 2017» that is supposed to take place on 14-20 September.
Lithuanian intelligence confirms that «it is quite possible that the real number of participants will be much higher and the scenario will include an armed conflict with NATO».
The report also stated that Russia, while strengthening its military facilities in the western part of the country and in Kaliningrad region, hold cards to start a warfare against the Baltic states in 24-48 hours.
Russia is also supposed to deploy Iskander missile system in Kaliningrad region on an ongoing basis. And a motivation for such move will be a reaction for NATO activities.